Random rewards in games are easier to judge when you can see the numbers. This calculator takes the odds a game publishes, including soft pity and hard pity if it has them, and tells you how many pulls you are likely to need, how likely you are to succeed with the pulls you have, and what it would cost.
It works for any game that uses a pull, draw, or crate system with a rare top tier. Nothing you type is sent anywhere. The calculation runs in your browser.
Pity and drop rate calculator
How to use it
- Find the odds. Most games with random rewards publish the rate for each rarity on an in-game information page. Enter the base rate for the top rarity.
- Add pity rules, if any. Many games raise your chances after a number of unlucky pulls (soft pity) and guarantee the drop at a fixed pull (hard pity). Enter the pull where the boost starts, how much each extra pull adds, and the guaranteed pull. If your game has none, set the soft pity start to 0 and the hard pity to a large number such as 500.
- Enter your budget. Type how many pulls you can afford and what each pull costs. The cost can be real money or premium currency.
- For featured items, tick the 50/50 box. Many games give you a coin flip on whether your first top-rarity drop is the item you want, and guarantee it next time if you lose.
What the results mean
Chance within your pulls is the probability that you get the item at least once with the pulls you entered. It is not a promise. A 90 percent chance still fails one time in ten.
Average pulls needed is the long-run average over many players. Half of the players will need fewer pulls than the median, and some will need far more, up to the worst case set by hard pity.
The confidence table shows how many pulls you need to reach a 50, 75, 90, or 99 percent chance. If your budget is below the 90 percent row, treat the purchase as a gamble, not a plan.
How the calculation works
For each pull, the calculator works out the chance of the drop happening on that pull, given that it has not happened yet. Before soft pity, this is the base rate. After soft pity starts, each pull adds the extra chance you entered, and on the hard pity pull the chance becomes 100 percent. Multiplying the chances of missing on every earlier pull gives the chance of reaching a given pull without a drop, and from that it builds the full distribution of how many pulls it takes.
For the 50/50 option, it combines two of those distributions. If you win the first coin flip you are done after one top-rarity drop. If you lose, you need a second one, and the calculator adds the pulls for both. The pity counter is assumed to reset after each top-rarity drop, which is how most games work.
A worked example
The default numbers describe a commonly used setup: a base rate of 0.6 percent, soft pity starting at pull 74 with six percentage points added per pull, and a guarantee at pull 90. With these settings the average is about 62 pulls for the top rarity, and with 80 pulls you have roughly a 92 percent chance. Add a 50/50 guarantee for a featured item and the average rises to about 93 pulls. These defaults are only an example, not the odds of any specific game, so always replace them with the numbers your game publishes.
Limits to keep in mind
- The calculator assumes each pull is independent apart from the pity rules. Games can have extra rules that are not modeled here, such as shared counters across banners or hidden adjustments.
- Published rates are the developer’s statement. Independent players sometimes measure slightly different results over limited samples, and small samples are noisy.
- Rules differ by game and change over time. Check the in-game odds page before spending.
- The cost figure is a plain multiplication of pulls by the price you entered. It does not include bundle bonuses, discounts, or currency left over.
If you want to understand why games are built this way, read our guides on why games use loot boxes and random rewards and why in-game currency never matches real money.
Spend with a plan
A simple rule is to decide your budget before you open the game, compare it with the 90 percent row, and stop when the budget is gone. If the item matters to you and your budget does not reach it, waiting for the next event or saving free currency is usually the cheaper option.